The trade wars of the 20th century were fought over steel, oil, and manufacturing capacity. The trade wars of the 21st century will be fought over data — who controls it, where it flows, and whose interests it serves.

This is not a prediction. It is already happening. The EU’s data localisation requirements, China’s cross-border data transfer restrictions, and the United States’ resistance to data governance provisions in trade agreements are all expressions of the same underlying reality: data is a strategic asset, and the nations that control the most valuable datasets will have decisive advantages in AI capability, economic planning, and geopolitical influence.

The Trade Impact Lens™

The TEE Method™ Trade Impact Lens scores technology agreements across seven dimensions: value flow, labour displacement, data flow, market displacement, balance of payments, dependency, and reciprocity. Each dimension is scored 1–5, with 1 being highly negative and 5 being highly positive for the adopting nation.

When I apply the Trade Impact Lens to typical cloud service agreements between African governments and major US technology providers, the scores are consistently in the 7–13 range (Critical). The value flow is overwhelmingly outward. The data flow is entirely outward. The dependency is total. And the reciprocity is zero.

What the AfCFTA Must Address

The African Continental Free Trade Area represents the most significant opportunity for collective digital sovereignty on the continent. But its digital trade provisions must go beyond tariff harmonisation and market access. They must address:

  • Data residency standards: Where African citizen data can be stored and processed
  • AI procurement sovereignty: Requirements for governance capacity before AI adoption in public services
  • Cross-border data flow reciprocity: If data flows out, equivalent value must flow in
  • Digital infrastructure investment: Collective investment in African-owned compute and storage capacity

A trade agreement that does not address data sovereignty is a trade agreement that trades away sovereignty.

The WTO’s moratorium on e-commerce duties expires this year. The negotiations that follow will determine whether data continues to be treated as a free good — flowing from the data-rich nations of the Global South to the processing-rich nations of the Global North — or whether a more equitable architecture emerges.

The countries that arrive at these negotiations with a sovereignty strategy will shape the outcome. Those that do not will be shaped by it.

Drawn from the Trade Impact Lens™ in SOVEREIGN (2026). Book Tonisha for your trade conference.